Tool

How much of your schedule is waiting?

Plans are written in effort and delivered in elapsed time. The gap is queues you do not control, and the reason the standard remedy fails is that waiting does not divide by headcount.

The programme, with the waiting separated out

One row per workstream. Effort is person-days of actual work; waiting is calendar days where nobody is doing anything because the answer is with someone else. Keeping them in separate columns is most of the value here, because a plan that adds them together cannot tell you which one is the problem.

2 engineers
The whole team is allowed to work any single workstream up to its parallel limit, which is the most generous assumption available to the case for hiring.
WorkstreamEffort person-daysWaiting daysMax in parallelOnly afterRemove
9 rows
Only after takes the exact names of other workstreams, comma separated. The rows most often missing are the ones with no effort at all: approvals, access, procurement, and the window.
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Where the calendar actually goes
WorkstreamStartsWaitingWorkingEffortFinishes
Site access and safety induction021d2d2 pd23
Historian extract from customer ITcritical028d3d3 pd31
Vendor firmware drop035d1d1 pd36
PLC integration on the bench237.5d15 pd30.5
Data pipeline and labellingcritical3112.5d25 pd43.5
Model training and evaluationcritical43.56d12 pd49.5
Controls integration on the linecritical49.55d10 pd54.5
Change-control approvalcritical54.530d2d2 pd86.5
Commissioning windowcritical86.514d2.5d5 pd103
Working is effort divided by however many people can usefully be on it. Waiting is not divided by anything, which is the entire point of the column.
Elapsed
103 days
75 person-days of work in it
Of that, waiting
70%
72 days on the critical chain
Doubling the team
98.8 days
Saves 4.2 days
If nothing waited
31 days
The floor, at this team size
103 elapsed days for 75 person-days of work. 70% of the critical chain is waiting for somebody else, and doubling the team moves the date by 4.2 days.
Twice the engineers moves the finish by 4.2 days, because the schedule is not effort-bound. Every conversation about resourcing this programme is a conversation about the 30% of it that responds to resourcing. The other 70% responds to whoever can shorten a queue you do not control.
The single longest wait on the chain is change-control approval at 30 days. Every day taken off it is a day off the finish, which no amount of effort anywhere else in the plan can match. Ask what starts that clock, and whether it can be started before the thing it is waiting on is finished.
Send me this schedule

Your workstreams go with it. If most of the elapsed time is waiting, the plan that fixes it is a sequencing and paperwork plan rather than a hiring one, and it can usually be written in an afternoon.

Your inputs are included so the reply can be specific.

The waits that are missing from your plan

Ranges from programmes putting models onto physical systems. The column that recovers schedule is the third one, because most of these clocks are started by a request rather than by finished work, and almost all of them are started later than they had to be.

What you wait forTypicalWhat starts the clockStartable early?
Site access and safety induction2 to 6 weeksA signed contract and a named site contactYes, from day one
Historian or database extract from customer IT3 to 8 weeksA written request with the exact tags and date rangeYes, before any pipeline exists
Security review or network exception4 to 12 weeksAn architecture sketch, not a built systemYes, from the design
Procurement of compute or sensors4 to 20 weeksA part number and a purchase orderYes, from the architecture
Vendor firmware or SDK drop2 to 12 weeksTheir release train, which you do not setOnly by asking for the date early
Customer sign-off on the test protocol1 to 4 weeksA written protocolYes, before the tests are built
Change-control or management-of-change approval2 to 8 weeksA complete design packagePartly, by staging the submission
Commissioning or line-down window1 to 26 weeksA fixed maintenance calendarNo. Book the slot first and work backwards
Regulatory or notified-body feedback8 to 26 weeksA complete submissionNo, but pre-submission meetings are faster

These are calendar weeks with nobody working, and the ranges are wide because they genuinely are. A plan that contains only the engineering will be wrong by roughly their sum, and the overrun will be attributed to the engineering, which was delivered on estimate.

A worked example

A model going onto a plant floor. Nine workstreams, 75 person-days of engineering, two engineers. Read as effort, that is about eight weeks of work.

Scheduled with the queues in it, the finish is on day 103. The critical chain runs from the historian extract through the pipeline, the model, controls integration, change-control approval and the commissioning window, and 72 of those 103 days are waiting. Seventy percent of the programme is time in which nobody on the team can do anything about the finish date.

Now the resourcing conversation. Doubling the team to four engineers takes the finish from 103 days to 98.8. Four days, for twice the cost, and that is with the model letting the whole team pile onto every workstream up to its parallel limit, which is the most generous assumption the argument for hiring could ask for.

Set every wait to zero instead and the same nine workstreams finish on day 31. That is not achievable, but it bounds the two levers against each other honestly: headcount is worth four days here and the queues are worth seventy-two.

The single longest wait on the chain is change-control approval at 30 days, and it sits after controls integration because the board needs a complete design package. Every day taken off it is a day off the finish. Staging that submission so the board sees the design while the integration is still being wired is worth more than any staffing decision available on this programme.

The arithmetic, so you can check it

Each workstream takes waiting + effort / min(team, max in parallel) and starts when its latest dependency finishes. The finish is the latest workstream, and the critical chain is traced back through whichever dependency was binding at each step. Waiting is never divided by anything, which is the whole point of keeping it in its own column.

The doubling comparison re-runs the identical schedule at twice the team size. Because the whole team may work any single workstream up to its stated parallel limit, the comparison is deliberately generous to headcount: if the saving is small under that assumption, it is smaller in reality.

The honest limit

This is a single-project model with no contention between workstreams, so it assumes a team of four can be fully applied to whatever is on the critical chain today and moved tomorrow. Real teams cannot. It also treats each wait as a fixed duration rather than a distribution, when in practice they are long-tailed and the variance is often the thing that hurts: a 30 day approval that occasionally takes 90 damages a plan more than a reliable 45 day one. The parallel limits are judgement calls, and they are where an optimistic plan hides.

Why the engineering is the small half of these programmes is in the model is five percent, and why more people does not close the gap in you cannot hire a gap. To decide what order the integration itself should run in, use the integration order planner.

Questions

Why do these programmes take so much longer than the effort suggests?

Because most of the elapsed time is not effort. Site access, a data extract from someone else's IT department, a security exception, a change-control board, a vendor's release train and the one week a year the line can be stopped are all calendar time with nobody working. They are usually absent from the plan entirely, since a plan built from engineering estimates only contains engineering.

Does adding engineers shorten the schedule?

Only the part of it that is effort, and on these programmes that is the minority. On the worked example, doubling the team moves a 103 day schedule to 99. Removing the queues instead would take it to 31. Both numbers come from the same plan, and only one of them is usually discussed.

How do you shorten a wait you do not control?

By starting it earlier rather than by chasing it. Most waits are gated by a request rather than by finished work: a data extract needs a signed request and a contact, not a working pipeline. Ask what actually starts each clock, and how much of the thing it waits on has to exist first. Overlapping a 30 day approval with the work it reviews is worth more than any staffing change.

What counts as waiting rather than effort?

Any calendar day on which the work cannot progress and nobody on your side is spending time on it. If somebody is preparing the submission, that is effort; if the submission is sitting with a review board, that is waiting. The distinction matters because effort divides by headcount and waiting does not.

Should the waits go in the plan even if they are outside our control?

Especially then. A plan that omits them is not a plan with some risk in it, it is a plan that will be wrong by the sum of the omissions, and the overrun will be attributed to the engineering work that was actually delivered on estimate. Naming the waits also puts them in front of the one person who can shorten them, which is usually somebody at the customer rather than on the team.